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As the market has been seesawing upward, we must not forget to step back and take a good look as to how we are generally moving. The 5-week climb we are experiencing will never be forever and it is about time we anticipate and prepare for the Bear's turn. Our previous outlooks have been pretty much accurate and we have seen all three indexes move to the direction we have expected. Here's a detailed analysis for the week:
The break of 11,820 resistance in DJIA last Monday failed to sustain and dropped back into the consolidating region. This prompts us to redraw our analysis that gives us a possible bearish rising-wedge formation. The break of the short to medium-term trend line would confirm this, currently approximately at 11,450 level. It has been very obvious as to how the market has been discounting a lot of the bad news and pushing the index up. However, the daily movements show no concrete evidence of the Bull's effort to sustain its climb. Worse, looking at the charts, we have more troughs than we have peaks (4 vs. 2) that shows we are consolidating more on the lows than the highs. On one side of the coin, the DJIA may breakdown anytime within the coming week to fulfill the rising-wedge formation. On the other side of the coin, the Bulls may try to push for 12,000 extending the sideways with upward bias movement. Either way, we recommend to stay liquid, trade lightly and be quick to get out of your long positions at market breakdown.
NASDAQ has succeeded in its short-term up trend climb. However, we expect either a sideways movement or a reversal to happen soon as it closes on resistance of 2,483 and 2,549.
Copy cat S&P 500 follows DJIA as it also forms a possible rising-wedge formation. Outlook is maintained to be sideways with upward bias. Break of support at approximately 1,285 would signal the start of a down trend.
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